Value betting means identifying bets where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of the outcome. Over time, betting only on value selections can be profitable even if you don’t win every bet.
Example of Value Betting
If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning (true odds 2.00) but the bookmaker offers 2.40, the bet has value.
Strategy Tips
- Compare odds across multiple bookmakers.
- Use stats, form, and models to estimate true probabilities.
- Keep records to track if your value assessments are accurate.
Common Mistakes
- Confusing value with high odds — a big price isn’t always value.
- Backing teams you “like” instead of those with a real statistical edge.